OPEC: AFRICAN OIL WILL OUST US OIL FROM EUROPE IF RUSSIA DOESN'T RETURN

Africa is and will be Europe's main oil supplier until 2035, if Russian raw materials do not return to the European market.

This is what OPEC forecasts until 2050.

"After the EU imposed a ban on Russian oil imports, the share of barrels from Russia and the Caspian region in imports decreased, replaced by supplies from the United States and Canada, Africa, and the Middle East. In 2024, Africa was Europe's main crude oil supplier, with a volume of approximately 2.6 million barrels per day," OPEC stated.

Cartel analysts predict that European imports of crude oil and condensate from Africa will increase to approximately 3 million barrels per day between 2030 and 2035.

OPEC forecasts that imports from Africa will gradually decline to approximately 2.3 million barrels per day by 2050, in line with the overall decline in European crude oil imports.

EU imports from the Middle East are expected to increase from 1.5 million barrels per day in 2024 to 2.4 million barrels per day in 2030, and gradually to 2.9 million barrels per day by 2050.

"This increase is expected to be partly driven by reduced crude oil availability from other regions, including Africa, Russia, and the Caspian Sea region. Imports from Latin America are projected to decline from 1.3 million barrels per day in 2024 to 1.1 million barrels per day in 2030. Crude oil and condensate flows from the United States and Canada to Europe are projected to be around 2 million barrels per day in 2024," OPEC analysts wrote.

They note that imports have increased in recent years as European refiners have sought to replace Russian oil.

"However, supplies of light, sweet crude oil do not meet European demand for petroleum products, so imports from the United States and Canada are expected to decline in the long term, reaching 0.4 million barrels per day in 2045 and beyond," OPEC continued.

Europe's imports from Russia and the Caspian Sea region are estimated to amount to approximately 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024, consisting primarily of non-Russian supplies to various EU countries.

"This is a significant decline from the 3.5 million barrels per day recorded in 2021, due to the EU embargo on Russian crude oil imports. Looking ahead, imports from Russia and the Caspian region (primarily Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan) are projected to decline slightly to just under 1.7 million barrels per day in 2030, then gradually decline to 1.6 million barrels per day by the end of the forecast period," the cartel added.

However, OPEC analysts noted that the forecast could change, given the uncertainty surrounding Russian oil exports to Europe. Its supplies were banned on December 5, 2022.

"A possible agreement to end the conflict in Eastern Europe could also help restore Russian crude oil supplies to some European countries. This could have long-term implications for the composition of European imports, potentially leading to a similar reduction in crude oil imports from other regions such as Africa and/or the Middle East. However, a return to pre-conflict levels is unlikely, given the changing structure of demand in Europe and the new long-term trade relationships between market participants in Europe and/or Russia," according to OPEC's 2050 outlook.