RUSSIAN SEABORNE OIL EXPORTS SLUMP AFTER BIDEN SANCTIONS

The supply cut in the seven days to January 19 kept four-week supplies below 3 million barrels per day for the fourth week.

Last week, Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports fell the most since November. That came after Joe Biden, who left the US presidency, introduced sweeping sanctions on the country’s oil trade. There are also early signs that these measures could change flow patterns.

The decline kept the four-week average below 3 million barrels per day for the fourth straight week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, which tracks ship movements. That brings it closer to its recent 16-month low.

There have been some problems since the sanctions were imposed. Tankers were being diverted, buyers were looking for alternatives, and there was a shortage of available ships to load at Kozmino, the most important port in eastern Russia.

Russia’s seaborne crude supplies (2022-2025). Source: Bloomberg ship-tracking data.

These changes will be especially noticeable in Russian Pacific flows. About three-quarters of the cargo shipped via ESPO since early October has been carried on ships that are now subject to sanctions. The entire fleet of specialized tankers used in the Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 oil and gas projects has also been included in the sanctions list.

The impact of the sanctions will depend on how severely they are enforced by the new administration in Washington.

India has said it will allow tankers booked before January 10, when the US announced its latest measures, to unload cargo at its ports until March 12. However, the country’s state-run refiners say the impact could be temporary as Moscow looks for alternative routes. They also hope the new Trump administration will take a softer stance on Russia.

The first ship to be allowed since sanctions were imposed on January 10 has unloaded its cargo in China. On Sunday, Baikal Bay unloaded about 700,000 barrels of Sakhalin-blend oil at the Xinhaiwan terminal in Lianyungang. This came immediately after the sanctions were imposed.

In the week ending January 19, 26 tankers loaded a total of 19.26 million barrels of Russian crude, according to ship-tracking data and port agent reports. That’s 3% less than the previous week.

In the week ending Jan. 19, Russian oil was loaded onto 26 tankers. Source: Bloomberg ship-tracking data. Excludes vessels carrying cargo identified as KEBCO Kazakhstan class.

A total of 26 tankers loaded 19.26 million barrels of Russian crude oil in the week ending Jan. 19, according to ship-tracking data and port agent reports. That was 3% less than the previous week.

Volumes were down from the previous week, when 21.06 million barrels were loaded onto 27 vessels.

Daily crude oil flows in the seven days through Jan. 19 were down about 260,000 barrels, or 9%, from the previous week. That amounted to 2.75 million barrels.

Lower flows from Russian ports in the Black Sea, Arctic and Pacific were partially offset by higher supplies from the Baltic port of Primorsk.

Flows from the smaller Baltic port of Ust-Luga remained subdued after an unexpected decline in late December.

Shipments from Russia’s largest Pacific port, Kozmino, rose slightly but remained hampered by strong winds that gusted up to 30 mph during the week. This was confirmed by data for nearby Nakhodka from Visualcrossing.com.

Flows from two other Pacific ports associated with two separate projects off the coast of Sakhalin Island also fell last week but remain within the usual range for the four-week period.

The less volatile four-week flow average was unchanged from the previous week’s revised figure at 2.94 million barrels per day.

Russia's four-week average crude oil supplies by destination (2022-2025). Source: Bloomberg vessel tracking data.

Crude oil supplies for the first three weeks of 2025 were about 340,000 barrels per day, 10% below the year-ago average.

During the week, two cargoes of Kazakh crude from KEBCO were loaded in Novorossiysk on the Black Sea.

Russia abandoned its export targets at the end of May, opting instead to limit production in line with its OPEC+ commitments. The country's production target is set at 8.978 million barrels per day through the end of March. The move comes after the planned easing of some production cuts was postponed for the third time.

Moscow has also pledged to implement deeper production cuts between March and September to offset last year’s excess OPEC+ production. However, this schedule could be subject to revision.