OPEC MAINTAINS GLOBAL OIL DEMAND GROWTH FORECASTS FOR 2025 AND 2026

According to the June report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), global oil demand could increase by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, with further growth expected in 2026. OPEC has thus once again confirmed its estimates.

In absolute terms, global oil demand could amount to 105.13 million bpd in 2025, and 106.42 million bpd in 2026. According to the report, Asian countries, China, and India will contribute approximately 1.2 million barrels per day to demand growth in 2025, while OECD countries will contribute 138,000 barrels per day. In 2026, the OECD will contribute approximately 100,000 barrels per day to demand growth, while non-OECD countries, primarily Asian countries, India, and China, will contribute 1.2 million barrels per day.

OPEC forecasts growth in transportation fuel demand, particularly for jet fuel, by 407,000 barrels per day in 2025, for gasoline by 378,000 barrels per day, and for diesel by 94,000 barrels per day. In 2026, demand for jet fuel and gasoline will continue to increase by approximately 370,000 barrels per day for each fuel type, while diesel will grow by 117,000 barrels per day.

The organization also confirmed its forecast of increased oil supply from non-OPEC+ countries this year and next. According to OPEC forecasts, production in these countries will increase by 0.8 million barrels per day this year, reaching an average of 54 million barrels per day, and by 0.7 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching 54.7 million barrels per day. The main drivers of growth will be the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina, while the main decline is expected in Angola.