COMPARATIVE ECONOMIC FORECASTS: G7 VS BRICS IN 2024

The IMF recently released projections for real GDP growth in 2024, predicting that global growth will remain stable at around 3.2%. However, several major countries have seen their economic growth projections revised downward.

From the chart, we can observe variations in real GDP growth projections for 2024 across member countries of these two groups.

Global economic growth is forecast to slow in 2024, with most G7 and BRICS countries experiencing a slowdown compared to 2023. Amid this trend, three new BRICS members (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and South Africa) are forecast to post higher real GDP growth in 2024 compared to 2023.

The global economy is on a roller coaster ride in 2024. On the one hand, China and India, the BRICS giants, are expected to maintain relatively high growth rates of 4.6% and 6.8%, respectively. However, compared to the previous year, China is slowing down by 0.6 percentage points and India by 1 percentage point.

On the other hand, four G7 countries are showing signs of recovery. Germany, which experienced a recession in 2023 (-0.3%), is expected to recover with positive growth. Other G7 countries such as the United States, Japan and Canada are also expected to accelerate.

Amid the global economic slowdown in 2024, the BRICS countries are expected to shine with an average growth rate of 3.6%, leaving the G7 behind with just 1%.

The BRICS advantage does not end there. The potential addition of new members and higher growth rates are expected to push them beyond the G7 in economic size within the next two decades.

Although the combined G7 GDP is still $15 trillion ahead, the BRICS are like a high-speed train, ready to overtake the long-time champion.